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Saturday 11 April 2015

USDJPY TRADE ALERT!


  USD-JPY TRADE ALERT



                                    SELL USDJPY @ 102.30
 

                                         TP @ 119.30 ...

                                         SL @ 120.75 ... 

                                      RISK REWARD RATIO: 1:2

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Monday 6 April 2015

Republicans push demand for a vote on Iran nuclear deal

© Reuters. Corker speaks with reporters after Democratic and Republican party policy luncheons at the U.S. Capitol in Washington© Reuters. Corker speaks with reporters after Democratic and Republican party policy luncheons at the U.S. Capitol in Washington
By Warren Strobel
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Senate Republicans on Sunday pressed their demand that the U.S. Congress be allowed to vote on a nuclear agreement with Iran, but signaled they are willing to wait for last week's interim agreement to be finalized before passing judgment.
"Look, the president needs to sell this to the American people, and Congress needs to be involved," said Senator Bob Corker, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.
Corker did not condemn the framework deal reached by Iran and major powers in Switzerland on Thursday after months of negotiations, but he cited concerns over inspection provisions and differing accounts from Washington and Tehran over what was actually agreed.
The Tennessee Republican said his committee will go ahead with a planned April 14 vote on legislation requiring President Barack Obama to submit a final nuclear agreement to Congress for review and approval. The deal reached last Thursday is supposed to be the framework for a final agreement to be struck by the end of June.
The bill, supported by both Republicans and many Democrats, would prohibit Obama from suspending sanctions on Iran during a 60-day congressional review. In that period, Congress could approve or disapprove the agreement, or take no action.
Corker told Fox News on Sunday that he had backing from key Democrats for the bill, including New York Senator Chuck Schumer, a prominent Jewish lawmaker who is line to be the new Senate Democratic leader in early 2017. Israel has been strongly critical of the nuclear deal.
Corker acknowledged he did not know if backers of the legislation in the Senate would have the 67 votes needed to override an expected veto by Obama, who says passing the measure would undermine the negotiations with Iran.
"I don't know if we have 67 votes. ... We have 64 or 65 that we are aware of today. There are many more that are considering this," Corker said.
In an interview with the New York Times published on Sunday, Obama sought to avoid confrontation with Corker and said he hoped a compromise could be reached - but one that would not encroach on presidential prerogatives.
"I do think Senator Corker ... is somebody who is sincerely concerned about this issue and is a good and decent man, and my hope is that we can find something that allows Congress to express itself but does not encroach on traditional presidential prerogatives — and ensures that, if in fact we get a good deal, that we can go ahead and implement it," Obama said.
DEMOCRATS HOLD THE KEY
With Republicans mostly united on the issue, and some, including potential 2016 presidential candidates, fiercely condemning the deal, the key role likely will be played by lawmakers from Obama's Democratic Party.
Many do not trust Iran and fear the verification measures are not adequate. They face energetic lobbying by Israel, whose prime minister, Benyamin Netanyahu, says the deal as currently configured threatens his country's security.
While many Democrats are skeptical of Iran, they may be unwilling to hand the U.S. president a major foreign policy defeat.
"Wavering Senate Democrats have been circumspect about the deal reached in Switzerland," said Daniel Harsha, a former Democratic staffer on the House Foreign Affairs Committee.
Until the agreement is finalized and Secretary of State John Kerry testifies about it on Capitol Hill, "you aren't likely to see many Senate Democrats, even those who have publicly backed new sanctions legislation ... publicly pan the agreement," said Harsha, now at Harvard University's Kennedy School.
The agreement reached in Lausanne, Switzerland, would ease economic sanctions on Tehran in return for strict limits on its nuclear sites, centrifuges that can enrich uranium and enriched uranium stockpiles.
Both Corker and Senator Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, previewed another possible Republican strategy.
If the final agreement with Iran is flawed, they argued, it would be better to keep in place an initial interim deal reached with Iran in November 2013, which contains limits on Tehran's ability to enrich uranium that could be used for a nuclear weapon. All sides believe that is being observed.
"That's one way of looking at this program - keeping the interim deal in place that's been fairly successful, and have a new crack at it with a new president," Graham said on CBS' Face the Nation program.
Even if this strategy were adopted by the United States, however, it was unclear how it would play with the five other powers engaged in the negotiations with Iran - Britain, China, France, Germany and Russia.
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Gold rallies $20 as investors react to U.S. jobs report


Gold prices rallied sharply on Monday, as investors increased bets that the Federal Reserve will hold off on raising interest rates until later this year following the release of disappointing U.S. employment data.
A delay in raising interest rates would be seen as bullish for gold, as it decreases the relative cost of holding on to the metal, which doesn't offer investors any similar guaranteed payout.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, gold futures for June delivery jumped $17.90, or 1.49%, to trade at $1,218.80 a troy ounce during European morning hours.
There was no settlement in gold futures on Friday as markets were closed for the start of the Easter holiday.
Futures were likely to find support at $1,178.20, the low from March 31, and resistance at $1,223.00, the high from March 2.
The Labor Department reported Friday that the U.S. economy added 126,000 new jobs in March, the smallest increase since December 2013. Economists had forecast jobs growth of 245,000 last month.
The surprisingly weak report added to concerns over the outlook for economic growth after other recent economic data pointed to a slowdown at the start of the year.
A slowing labor market could prompt Fed officials to reconsider a planned increase in interest rates. Last month the Fed indicated that the first rate increase could come as soon as June, but added that continued improvement in labor markets would be a key factor it would consider.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, traded at 96.92, not far from a seven-day trough of 96.55 hit on Friday.
Elsewhere on the Comex, silver futures for May delivery surged 48.7 cents, or 2.92%, to trade at $17.18 a troy ounce, while copper for May delivery rallied 8.6 cents, or 3.16%, to trade at $2.820 a pound.
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Thursday 22 January 2015

FX Daily: Believe in Draghi, Stay Short EURUSD

Every client we have met over the last two weeks is asking the same question: will today’s historic ECB meeting be a “sell the fact” event for European risk assets and the euro? Our own view is that it will not and we expect EURUSD to make fresh cycle lows over the next few weeks. Here are 3 reasons why:
1. Positioning not that stretched. We do not believe the underlying euro short is as large as feared. First, the SNB shock last week has likely prompted risk-reduction from many market participants, and anecdotal evidence from our investor meetings suggests that most are running less than 50% of the positions they had in Q4 last year. Second, even if some widely-used metrics point to stretched positioning, the overall size has not changed much since last year: speculative shorts on the IMM are close to unchanged from last November even as EUR/USD has dropped by 7%.
2. Fundamental flows are driving the move. Positioning aside, euro weakness is being driven by large-scale capital outflows not speculators. The most recent data show a continuation of Europe’s record fixed income outflows up to November (our Euroglut thesis), with a large chunk finding refuge in US fixed income assets. Not only that, but the recent bounce in European stock markets has not benefitted the euro either: our high-frequency ETF monitors indicate that the majority of these inflows are being hedged, with assets into the previously booming unhedged sector lingering at the lows.
3. ECB not fully priced and can over-deliver. Consensus for today is that the ECB commits to meeting its 1trillion balance sheet target via a combination of TLTRO, sovereign, ABS and covered bond purchases, in turn implying a ~700bn government bond-buying program. We see three sources of dovish surprises to this baseline. First, the ECB may raise its overall 1trio balance sheet target given the deterioration in the inflation outlook since the number was set last September. Second, even if “intellectual” consensus has moved towards 700bn of bond buys, European short-end yields are still not consistent with this level of liquidity injection into the system and can move lower. Finally, Draghi’s forward-looking language will be just as important: an aggressive commitment to do more can allow the market to expect more irrespective of the initial headline.

http://www.mediafire.com/view/21gklw13wbf532n/fx_daily_(1).pdf
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EURJPY Technical Analysis, 22 Jan 2015

(136,85) The EURJPY confirmed a mixed closing last night, however negative, but well off the low below 136!! The indicators of the daily chart are still well negative but those of the s/t charts are remaining above the line for now suggesting further s/t upside potential.
However, only an hourly closing above the 200 hours line at 137,35 will support an extension of the move up!
In the hourly chart we have a potential positive reversal situation suggesting a s/t target at 138,25!! However, the signal is not strong enough to suggest a position!!
We stay on the sideline
Resistance137.65138.85
Support135.75134.70

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USDCAD TECHNICAL ANALYSES

(1,2353) The USDCAD confirmed a very strong closing after the impressive rally following the rate cut by the BoC! We believe the dollar is too high, especially if one believes that the US economy is really growing!!
The indicators of the daily chart are still well positive showing heavy overbought levels. Those of the s/t charts are also positive and overbought. The overshooting failed yet to form divergences and this oculd favour a return toward…… the start of the move up!!
We prefer staying short!!
Resistance1.23951.2450
Support1.23201.2275

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